Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. They writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has something to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
