Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
